Travelers do irrational (and expensive) things in pursuit of airline status, and there's one big reason why: Free upgrades. But flyers lusting after Delta Medallion status for next year would be wise to think twice – the odds for getting bumped up front to first class have never been worse … even for top-tier Platinum and Diamond flyers.
Delta's top executives themselves made that painfully clear recently.
Just over a decade ago, the Atlanta-based airline was selling less than 10% of first class seats, filling the rest of the seats up front with Medallion members via complimentary upgrades. But Delta President Glen Hauenstein told investors last week that it's now selling a whopping 75% of first class, leaving just 12% of the cabin available upgrades.
It's a pain for travelers banking on a free upgrade up front, but it's been a windfall for Delta and – to quote Hauenstein – an “unsung hero” in Delta's path to becoming the most profitable airline in the U.S. Rather than dole out upgrades as a thank-you to its most loyal travelers, Delta is selling those seats at cheaper prices – or allowing travelers to upgrade after booking for even less.
“The biggest loss leader on the airplane in 2010 and before were the premium products, because we didn't sell them. We gave them away,” Hauenstein said during Delta's annual investor presentation last week. “We gave them away based on a frequent flyer system that was based on miles, not dollar spend.”
No more. That changing mindset is why cheap upgrades to Delta One – like $499 each way to Paris or London or $599 all the way to Seoul – have become shockingly common. It's why these $74 upgrades for a flight from Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) to Chicago-O'Hare (ORD) are now the norm for this route and many others, even after booking a dirt-cheap $76 economy ticket.
That means complimentary upgrades to first class have become shockingly few and far between. Sure, you can juice your odds by flying at off-peak times during off-peak days. And Delta Comfort Plus upgrades are easier to come by (if not virtually automatic for many top Medallion members) … though that might mean you're sitting in a middle seat between strangers in exchange for more legroom and a free drink.
But ask yourself: Is that why you went out of your way to earn Delta status? So you could get an upgrade on a flight on a Wednesday evening from Atlanta (ATL) to Louisville (SDF)?
We've seen this trend ourselves, too.
- One Platinum Medallion member of our team went four-for-25 on complimentary upgrades, only getting upgraded on short flights of 500 miles or less – and only during off-peak travel days
- Another Platinum Medallion missed out on upgrades on all six Delta flights they took this year.
- One of our team members with Gold Status went zero-for-four on eligible flights
- As a lowly Silver Medallion, I was upgraded to first class just once over 40 Delta flights
- And with her own Silver Medallion status, my wife hasn't been upgraded to first class once on more than 60 Delta flights over the last two years.
The odds get better as you climb the ranks of Delta status, of course. But when Delta sells 75% of those seats instead of leaving them as a treat for Medallion members, even top-tier Diamond flyers are now frequently missing out on upgrades that felt like a sure thing just a few years ago.
So really, it doesn't matter that Delta tried to winnow the ranks of flyers competing for upgrades with its unpopular overhaul of Medallion status last fall. Nor does it matter that Delta is installing more premium seats on both new aircraft deliveries and as it retrofits older airplanes.
Delta has decided it would rather sell those seats than reserve them as a perk for its loyal flyers. Hauenstein called it “a reengineering” to make the airline's premium seats its most profitable cabins.
Yet even loyal Delta customers might have missed this sea change in upgrades. Like every airline, complimentary upgrades remain a major selling point of earning Delta Medallion status. “Unlimited complimentary upgrades” gets top billing in Delta's own marketing for its Medallion program.
This change didn't happen overnight. It's been building for years.
In 2021, Hauenstein told investors the airline had improved from selling less than 10% of its domestic first class seats around 2010 to selling more than 60%. Three years later, Delta is now selling 75% of their seats up front.
How'd they do it? Simple: Cut prices on first class fares from the steep prices a decade or more ago, and make it drastically easier (and cheaper) to upgrade after booking whether you're using cash or SkyMiles.
“We were charging 13 times more than the average coach seat at the time of booking,” Hauenstein said. “We've made them much more affordable. And guess what? When you make something affordable, people want to buy it.”
In theory, top Platinum and Diamond flyers have an ace-in-the-hole to avoid the upgrade Hunger Games: Delta Upgrade Certificates, a perk of reaching those top levels of Medallion status. But this broader trend also makes it harder to redeem those upgrade certificates: As the airline hopes to sell them off for a song, many once surefire upgrades wind up clearing last minute … or not at all.
Bottom Line
There are still plenty of perks with Delta Medallion status that can make it well worthwhile. But increasingly, complimentary upgrades aren't one of them.
With more and more first class seats being sold upfront or as upgrades after booking, the odds for getting bumped up to first class on Delta have never been worse.
Want to fly first? Your best bet isn't just to pay for it – it might be your only choice.
That’s what I did, downgraded to the no annual fee AE card. I always liked Delta but their fares are usually higher than the other major airlines and then they go and change the rules and I’m gone. Too bad they don’t reward loyalty anymore.
How could you only be Silver with 60 Delta flights over 2 years??
Because I book really, really cheap Delta fares – my average over that two-year span is probably under $250 roundtrip.
I am a Delta Diamond now and will be next year. I agree that it has become more difficult to get an upgrade, and I never count on it, especially from a hub city (MSP). I do get upgrades from small cities (HLN, FAR), but those flights are about 40 minutes long, so who really cares?
I also don’t know what I will be doing for 2026, I spent $40k on my Delta reserve (As of 12/1/24) – As I understand it I just start over with zero and have to do it all over again. It makes me want to look at one world with Hawaiian and Alaska.
The other thing that was difficult to secure was our regional and global upgrades. I booked tickets six months in advance only to find that I had to be on a waitlist.
Agreed. Diamond here and finding that I am almost never upgraded out of MSP outbound or return. I was #1 and #2 on the list yesterday (with my daughter) with 2 seats left in first class but one was purchased less than an hour before the flight so I gave mine up to stay seated together. And that was on an Endeavor flying toothpick from Toronto to MSP.
Between this and the changes to the Skyclub policies, Delta is really just competing on the product itself which is their right – and they do have a good product – but 2025 will see me ditch my Amex Reserve and switch my spending to a more flexible card, and spend no time or money trying to maintain my status and instead spend the money on an actual desirable seat instead, which may be on Delta, but could just as easily be on another carrier depending on where I’m going.
Same here Diamonds are no longer forever! I’ve flown exclusively with Delta accruing over 600k miles I follow your sentiments considering my AE platinum card is of less value now. I may as well downgrade to the free generic AE card.