As rates tick up, there's mounting evidence that American's beloved AAdvantage loyalty program is starting to lose its value. And the first travelers to feel the pain are the ones that like using their AA miles to fly business class. 

Over the past few weeks, we've noticed a steady drip of troubling signs for AAdvantage – once (and maybe still) considered the best loyalty program in the United States.

AAdvantage rates for popular redemptions like Japan Airlines Business Class to Tokyo and American Airlines Business Class to Europe have gone up in many cases. Plus, finding award space flying American partners Qatar, Cathay Pacific, Iberia, and more is becoming nearly impossible while other airlines restrict bookings to one passenger per flight. 

To be perfectly clear: There are still ample opportunities to get good value from AAdvantage miles in both economy and business class if you're vigilant. But there's enough to smoke here to signal a pending fire within AA's pricing structure. 

The saddest changes are happening for what was the single best redemption in American Airlines' entire program: The ability to book Japan Airlines Business Class to Japan for 60,000 AAdvantage miles each way. 

Japan Airlines business class for 60k

Here's the good news: This 60,000-point rate isn't totally dead! The screenshot above shows a fare we sent to our Thrifty Traveler Premium flight deal alert subscribers for the Japan Airlines flight from Chicago (ORD) to Tokyo (HND) just last week. And if you can find availability, you can still get that exact 60,000-point rate on all of Japan Airlines' nonstop flights from North America to Tokyo. 

“Nonstop” being the operative word here, though. You used to be able to book connections on American Airlines … all at the same 60,000-mile rate! But not anymore. 

Now, when you tack on a connection, you get hit with a 20,000-mile add-on, bringing your price to 80,000 miles each way. In economy, you will get a 10,000-mile upcharge for adding a segment, too. 

Japan Airline business class for 80k points

This is still a great deal, don't get me wrong. But it's certainly worse than before and a signal that American is at least reconsidering its pricing on this popular redemption. 

It's not just Japan Airlines, though. American is making these negative changes to its own flights, too. Where you used to be able to book nonstop American Airlines Business Class flights to Europe for 55,000 miles each way (and then 65,000 miles each way), the new base rate is now much higher. 

PHL to Rome flight pricing - old

The fare above no longer exists. The lowest possible rate to book this same flight now is 77,000 miles each way. 

PHL-Rome airfare in biz class

Again, this is still a good deal. I would happily book a lie-flat seat to Europe for 77,000 miles, but when you consider that the rate was around 55,000 just last year … it stings. And more importantly, it signals a shift in Americans' thinking about how they want to price these redemptions. 

Japan Airlines and American's own flights are examples of a clear devaluation – where the number of points required to book a seat has gone up. But there's a more covert devaluation going on in American's program, too. It's the problem of partner availability, or the ability to use your miles on flights operated by airlines other than American. 

Here are some of the flights that we used to reliably see availability to book for two passengers that have since gone the way of the dinosaur: 

  • Qatar Airways Business Class: We've only seen AAdvantage availability on QSuites flights one time in the past three or more years … and only for about two hours.
  • Cathay Pacific Business Class: Cathay has reserved most of its business class seats for travelers with its own Asia Miles program. 
  • Iberia Business Class: Iberia similarly keeps its best business class flights for flyers with Avios, rarely ever giving up more than one seat per flight to American. 
  • Qantas Business or First Class: Qantas' forward cabins are no longer reliably bookable with AA miles. The only chance is at the last minute … a hard timetable to plan a trip to Australia or New Zealand around.
  • Royal Air Maroc Business Class (& Others): Airlines are limiting AA bookings to one passenger in business class, even when other programs can book two or more seats

So why is this happening? Here are my thoughts: 

For one, nearly every airline program is devaluing its points… so why shouldn't AA do the same? Pointsflation has come for nearly every airline program. If Delta and United's best rates are 90,000 or more each way for business class flights to Europe, why should American hold firm at 55,000? The upside for AA in not raising rates is that travel writers like me will praise them for it, but does that matter to them when most flyers aren't obsessing over business class redemptions every day like I am? 

Second, there are simply more AAdvantage miles out there than ever before, thanks to AA's new partnership with Citi. Citi has run several major sign-up bonus offers in the past year, giving travelers up to 100,000 points that can convert to AAdvantage miles. Plus, AA came out with another new credit card option and some bonus offers of their own. That's a whole lot of miles in travelers' accounts, which almost always leads airlines to raise rates. 

 

Bottom Line

There you have it: American AAdvantage redemptions are getting more expensive and harder to book, two telltale signs of a devaluation. 

Whether it's Japan Airlines Business Class and American Business Class rates going up or seats becoming much scarcer, AA's program is heading in a troubling direction and may no longer be the best in the U.S.