The outlook for flight prices is … well, it's not great right now, travelers!
Jet fuel prices have doubled (and then some) since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, and major U.S. airlines have copped to raising fares as a result. Ditto for a handful of marquee international carriers like Cathay Pacific, Air France, and Air New Zealand.
Worse yet, United CEO Scott Kirby announced late last week that his airline is bracing for even worse: oil as high as $175 per barrel, perhaps for a year or more. Already, they're cutting some flights and signaling future fare increases could be on the horizon … and they won't be alone.
But it's not game over, pay a fortune or stay home. You may just need to switch up your travel booking process – and what you do after booking, too.
Here's what we're doing a little bit differently at TT HQ these days.
Catch our discussion about flight prices on our latest podcast!
Booking Sooner is (Probably) Better
Flight prices are unpredictable. Some go up, some stay the same, some go down. Even now, that's not changing.
But fares are more likely to go up than down in the days, weeks, and months ahead – especially for travel this spring and summer. So if you've got flights you still need to book and like the price you see (or can at least stomach it), you'd be wise to book ASAP. That price is far more likely to get worse the longer you wait.
Now more than ever, it's critical to follow the Flight First Rule: Search for and book your flights before you request those vacation dates, book a hotel or rental car, or start to really piece together your trip.
By flipping your usual travel planning process on its head, it gives you the flexibility to shift your travel by just a day – maybe two – and save a small fortune. If you set all the pieces in motion and lock in your travel dates beforehand, you're at the whim of the airline and whatever it wants to charge you. That could be a costly mistake right now.
And above all: avoid basic economy fares. Sure, it could save you $60 or more on the front end … but it could cost you dearly in the long run.
Set a Google Flights Price Alert
This is always part of our post-booking script: the things we do immediately after booking a flight. But right now, it's paramount.
If you haven't already, set a Google Flights price alert for the flight you just booked. That way, you'll get an email if fares for your flight go up or down.
Again: That price seems much more likely to go up than down. But if you get lucky and prices do, in fact, drop after you book, you can jump on some savings.
So long as you didn't book the cheapest basic economy fares, you can change or cancel any flight with major U.S. airlines for free. And that opens the door to rebooking after prices drop to save even more.
You won't technically get your money back – unless you booked an even pricier refundable ticket – but you'll get a voucher or airline credit for the price difference. Still, that's (kind of) money back in your pocket: Funds you can put toward a future trip.
So here's the logic: Say you need to fly to New York City (JFK) in June and the best you can do is a $500 roundtrip fare. OK, that will work … but just in case fares fall after booking, you set a price alert. Smart.
Lo and behold, the world is looking better a few weeks from now and you get an email from Google that prices have dropped to just $330 roundtrip. You quickly cancel your existing reservation for a $500 credit, rebook that same flight for $330, and pocket a $170 voucher for future use.
Let's be clear: None of this is guaranteed … but it is possible. And that makes it worth keeping in mind when you book and set the pieces in motion.
Your Miles Go Further than Ever
Now more than ever, it's time to turn to whatever balance of airline miles or credit card points you've got stashed away. For two reasons:
- Many airlines charge reasonable award cancellation – and with U.S. carriers, none whatsoever. That makes using miles perfect method to book those “Maybe we'll take this” trips or “Let's book now in case prices increase” reservations
- With cash prices high, redeeming miles can both help you save a small fortune in cash but also mean you're potentially getting outsized value from those miles.
Personally, I'm leaning toward booking with U.S. airline mileage programs like Alaska/Hawaiian Atmos Rewards, American AAdvantage, Delta SkyMiles, United MileagePlus, and more – all of which have free cancellation on award tickets to get your miles and taxes and fees back.
It's easy and free to cancel award tickets with any of these carriers. And since most of them tie award rates to the cash price, you can set a Google Flights price alert and rebook to save a few thousand miles (or more) if prices drop.
That said, there could be some serious outsized value booking your flights with another carrier like Air France/KLM, Air Canada Aeroplan, or British Airways – the kinds that still have an award chart to determine award rates. And they're easy to earn: You can transfer points from major banks like Chase, American Express, Capital One, and others.
So long as you can find award availability, you can still book flights even when prices are high. For example, I needed a flight from Los Angeles (LAX) back to Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) to round out a trip to Southeast Asia this spring. Delta is charging $319 for a standard economy fare. Ouch.
But I could – and, in fact, did! – book that exact same 3 p.m. departure for 15,500 Air France/KLM Flying Blue miles. That saves me both money and SkyMiles – Delta is charging nearly 28,000 SkyMiles.
While it's not free, many go-to airlines for these kinds of workaround redemptions charge reasonable cancellation fees. On Air France, it'd cost me $75 to cancel my ticket and get my miles back. For the right redemption, that's worth it.
Let the Deals Come to You
We've had a mantra here for years: “Follow the flight deal.” We can't stop, won't stop saying it.
Because no matter how grim the outlook for flight prices might be right now, there will still be deals. Even with gas pricier than it's been in years, we just keep finding them.
If you're starting from scratch, lean on Google Flights Explore map to zero in on the best fares you can find from your home airport. Or lean on a flight deal service to send the best of the best straight to you – and we've got just the thing.
Our Thrifty Traveler Premium members are still getting tons of deeply discounted deals and stellar points redemptions to their inboxes daily. That includes some record-low fares from Minneapolis, Detroit (DTW), and Atlanta (ATL) to dreamy Caribbean islands like Aruba (AUA), Curaçao (CUR), Turks & Caicos (PLS), and more … from just $229 roundtrip!
The Delta SkyMiles deals just keep coming, too. That includes a record-low redemption to Taiwan for just 25,500 SkyMiles roundtrip – and on the new route to Hong Kong (HKG) for just a few thousand SkyMiles more. And these weren't just bookable from one or two cities on the West Coast, but from 150-plus cities nationwide!
Delta is even slashing award rates to fly Delta One Suites across the Pacific, including this recent find to Seoul (ICN) at the lowest rates we've seen in nearly three years: Just 89,200 SkyMiles!
If that doesn't prove that good deals are still out there, I don't know what will.
Bottom Line
It's not time to panic or give up on travel. It's time to shift your strategy.
Booking soon is as safe a bet as you can make right now. Worst case, book a standard economy seat so you can rebook later on if prices wind up dropping.
And lean on those miles, folks. That's what they're there for.
