You may have heard it here. You may have heard it there. Heck, you’ve probably heard it everywhere: Airfare is going up.
Rising oil prices due to the war in Iran aren't just hitting your wallet at the pump – they're also causing flight prices to go up. But that’s not the whole story.
Airfare isn't a monolith. No two airlines, routes, or individual flights are priced exactly the same. There are hundreds of factors behind why a flight is priced the way it is, and oil prices – however big a component they may be – are just one of them. That’s why, despite a rise in airfare overall, we’re still finding some of the cheapest flights we’ve ever seen.
The key? Knowing where to look. Here are some places and booking strategies to target to beat rising airfare in 2026.
Where There's Competition (Especially Low-Cost Competition)
Here’s a not-so-secret of the commercial airline business: Competition is the number one driver of airfare. Therefore, you’d be smart to look for cheap fares on routes and to destinations where there’s plenty of competition.
Sure, airlines would like to raise their fares by $50 per ticket to help recoup the rising cost of jet fuel. But if another airline comes in $50 below them and starts taking customers, you better believe that price will drop in minutes, not hours. That’s why, to get the best price in a high-fare environment, you should look for competitive routes or destinations where several airlines fly.
Here’s the perfect example of this – and you’re going to like it: Mexico and the Caribbean.
According to Cirium data, 13 airlines will operate U.S. to Mexico flights in 2026. On March 26, 2026, 472 flights flew from the U.S. to Mexico, including more than 100 on American Airlines and more than 80 on United. That’s a lot of seats that need to be filled.
So, let’s say American Airlines wanted to raise its flight prices by $50 to offset the price of gas on flights from Chicago to Cancún (CUN). If it does, it had better hope Frontier, Southwest, and United do the same on the same day. Otherwise, it’s losing paying customers. I’m no businessman, but that doesn't seem like a great strategy when operating costs are already high.
American doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room there, and that’s why it’s the perfect target for a cheap flight – even fares rise elsewhere.
In the past two weeks, we’ve found other similarly awesome Mexico and Caribbean deals to destinations where tons of airlines fly, including Aruba (AUA) from $250 roundtrip, Barbados (BGI) from $281 roundtrip, Curaçao (CUR) from $228 roundtrip, Grand Cayman (GCM) from $270 roundtrip, Nassau (NAS) from $275 roundtrip, Punta Cana (PUJ) from $288 roundtrip, Turks and Caicos (PLS) from $274 roundtrip, San Juan (SJU) from $270 roundtrip and more. We also found some Delta flights to Cancún (CUN) starting at just 8,000 SkyMiles roundtrip.
When it comes to competition, you can always count on low fares to Northern Europe as well.
You might be thinking: “Aren’t there way more flights to places like the U.K., France, and Italy than there are to Northern Europe? Wouldn’t that be where to look for the most competition?” My answer: Yes and no.
While the most popular European destinations may offer more flights, they tend to have fewer low-cost carriers. Up north, the likes of Icelandair, SAS, and Aer Lingus are famous for offering incredibly cheap roundtrip flights – think $300s and $400s – to many Northern European destinations. So if you want to fly to Copenhagen (CPH), airlines like Delta have to lower their own flight costs to compete. They can’t afford to raise their rates by even a few dollars and risk missing out on passengers.
This dynamic is why we recently sent out a roundup of Sweden flights from $357 roundtrip, the Faroe Islands for $414 roundtrip, Iceland from 20,000 Delta SkyMiles roundtrip, and Copenhagen flights from $413 roundtrip.
Other destinations with ample competition that come to mind are:
- Hawaii
- New York City
- Chicago
- Los Angeles
- Western Europe (U.K., the Netherlands, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain)
- Taipei
- Japan
- and more!
When you’re considering your next destination, check Google Flights to see if there’s competition on the route. I’d bet anything the lowest fares are on routes where airlines are putting pricing pressure on each other.
Where There's a Deal (Use Google Flights Explore)
Our Thrifty Traveler Premium flight deal alert subscribers don’t have to put much thought into this, as we send the best deals to their inboxes every day from their home airports. But even if you’re not a member, there’s a way to figure out what’s cheapest: Google Flights Explore.
Here’s how it works:
Simply navigate to the Google Flights home page, enter your preferred departure airport, and plug in the dates you want to travel. You can either leave the destination blank to search the whole globe or enter a region like “Europe,” “the Caribbean,” or even “Mexico” to narrow down your search.
Hit search, and you’ll see a map of all the destinations with the cheapest flights on your exact travel dates.
The best part of this? You can use Google Flights’ long list of filters to narrow in on exactly what you want. Click any city and filter by nonstop flights, flight times, specific flight lengths, airlines, free carry-on bags, and more. Then change your destination back to “Anywhere,” and you’ll get a new map with your filters applied.
Choose the flights you want and click through to book directly with the airline. Voila: The cheapest flights have been acquired for the exact dates you want.
Using this method will take the hassle out of figuring out where the best competition is, too. Let the low fare guide you. This is my favorite “travel hack” and always will be.
Watch Next: I showed a Chicago TV anchor how to do this live on-air! He found his flights to Orlando while he was interviewing me.
Where You Can Use Your Points & Miles
Airlines have been slowly increasing the cost of flights, but those increases haven’t fully crept into the points-and-miles world yet. That means your points are extra valuable right now. How valuable, you ask?
Spending only 25,000 Delta SkyMiles for a roundtrip flight to Asia that would cost more than $1,000 is ludicrous – but that’s exactly what we found last week, even as airfare rises. That’s a flight to Asia for the price of a flight to Orlando or Atlanta … all thanks to points and miles.
On the same day, we found similar pricing on flights to Hong Kong (HKG) on Delta, plus Delta One Suites SkyMiles deals to Seoul, South Korea (ICN), from 89,000 SkyMiles each way, and to Tokyo, Japan (HND), from 127,000 SkyMiles each way. And it’s not just Delta getting in on the action.
You could use Virgin Atlantic Flying Club points to fly business class to London from just 29,000 points each way, fly United business class to London from 80,000 miles each way, fly to Guam from just 60,000 miles roundtrip, fly Finnair business class to Europe from 53,000 points each way, or fly to Australia and New Zealand on American Airlines for 70,000 miles roundtrip.
Book Now!
Finally, if you haven’t booked your 2026 flights yet, it’s time to pull the trigger.
Whether you’ve been using Google Flights price alerts to track flight prices or just started searching, if you see a price you’re comfortable with, book it.
Even if oil prices come back down to earth, do you really think airlines will drop fares out of the goodness of their hearts? Heck no. They never do. When prices go up, it takes a long time for them to come back down, which means your best bet at a low fare is right now.
If you’re using points and miles, that’s the best insurance policy. That way, if prices do go down, you can cancel without a penalty (in the case of U.S. airlines, foreign carriers typically have small cancellation fees) and still get the best price. Either way, you’re protected.
If you book with cash, keep a Google price alert on your flights even after you book. If prices drop, you can cancel and rebook your flights at the cheaper rate and pocket the difference as an airline credit – as long as you booked a main cabin ticket or higher, not basic economy.
Bottom Line
If you’ve heard that flight prices are going up, you’re probably right. But that’s not the case everywhere or for every traveler.
If you know where to look, we’re still finding the best flight deals we’ve ever seen for our Thrifty Traveler Premium members – and there’s no reason you can’t find a great bargain for yourself.
