Back in May, we predicted an airfare crash. Two months later, here’s how that hot take actually held up. Plus, Chase’s newest Sapphire Lounge just landed in Dallas, and Emirates just unveiled an economy seat upgrade that might actually be worth getting excited about.
- 🧊 Old Takes Revisited: Where’s that “Airfare Cliff”?
- 🤝 Deal of the Day: Get 5K Points When You Sign Up for Rakuten
- 🛋️ Chase’s Newest Sapphire Lounge Just Landed in Dallas
- 😴 Emirates Unveils Game-Changing New Economy Headrest
- 🎙️ On the Pod: Where to Find Summer Deals
- 🥳 Join us in Fargo Next Week for the Thrifty Traveler Podcast LIVE!
- ✈️ Other Travel Tidbits
🧊 Old Takes Revisited: Where’s that “Airfare Cliff”?
Back in May, I made a bold prediction in this newsletter that airfare was about to drop. After months of sky-high fares, planes were bound to go out empty, and airlines would be forced to lower prices to fill planes again. At least that’s what I predicted …
So let’s see how my take has aged over the past two months and analyze what we’re seeing now – specifically, positive signs for dropping airfare, some insanely good deals if you know where to look, and painful domestic airfare (with a few exceptions).
According to the new Consumer Price Index data released last week, airfare fell 1.8% from May to June. Hey, progress! … Right? Well, fares are still up 26% year over year on average.
Our own price tracking data says the same: Fares are up overall, but things are softening.
The government’s data tracks every single flight – including all the super-expensive, short-haul domestic routes. So the five nonstop Delta flights from Minneapolis (MSP) to Des Moines (DSM) each day, priced at $300 roundtrip, weigh more toward the average than the one Icelandair flight per day from MSP to Iceland (KEF) at $398 roundtrip.
Our data also analyzes sudden, unadvertised price drops, which is what we’re all about here at Thrifty Traveler Premium. Our own data has clearly pointed to a new trend in airfare: The lowest fares don’t last as long as they used to.
Take, for example, the Delta SkyMiles flash sale from last week – offering flights to Brisbane (BNE), Auckland (AKL), and Sydney (SYD) from 25,000 SkyMiles roundtrip. That deal lasted less than 12 hours. It was one of the best fares we’ve seen in a decade of searching for flight deals … but it disappeared quickly.
The likelihood that you’re going to stumble into a crazy cheap flight are slim to none. You have to be hunting for good airfare – looking for new routes, soft routes, and constantly analyzing trends in airfare. (You could also let us do it for you at Thrifty Traveler Premium).
For domestic flights, the same patterns aren’t necessarily holding true. There are still cheap flights out there, but they’re correlated to Southwest sales in almost every scenario. That doesn’t mean you have to fly Southwest to jump on these sales, though.
Southwest puts enough competitive pressure on the other airlines that they have to match fares to places like Denver (DEN) and Phoenix (PHX) – which is where we saw the two best domestic deals from the past few weeks, with fares under $198 roundtrip.
Here’s the good news: The peak summer travel months are almost behind us, meaning the weaker demand fall season is upon us. Fall and winter are when we always see the cheapest airfare, so fares will likely come down somewhat in the next few weeks. Whether they come down like a “cliff” … that remains to be seen.
So, did my airfare prediction come true? Not quite, but there are cracks in the airfare wall. (That’s right, I’m switching the metaphor.)
– Gunnar Olson (flight deal analyst & travel reporter)
🤝 Deal of the Day: Get 5K Points When You Sign Up for Rakuten
Heat scale (out of 3): 🔥
Why we love it: Rakuten helps you earn extra bonus points on your everyday spending. And if you sign up right now, you can get $50 or 5,000 points as a bonus!
Rakuten points can be turned into Amex Membership Rewards or Bilt Rewards. It’s one of the best ways to earn either. Plus, it’s the last day of “Travel Week” at Rakuten to earn more on travel bookings.
Use this link to get $50 or 5K points as a sign-up bonus!
– Gunnar Olson, Thrifty Traveler Premium deal analyst
🛋️ Chase’s Newest Sapphire Lounge Just Landed in Dallas
Everything’s bigger in Texas, and now that includes Chase’s brand-new Sapphire Lounge in Dallas.
The bank recently opened its 10th Sapphire Lounge, an 18,000-square-foot space in DFW’s Terminal D near Gate D25 – one of the biggest in its network, and just a short walk from the competition: Amex’s Centurion Lounge and Capital One’s outpost. DFW’s Terminal D was already stacked for lounges … now, it might be unbeatable.
The new Dallas Sapphire Lounge leans into its Texas roots, but the standout is a first-of-its-kind whiskey lounge, complete with its own tasting menu and a signature Old Fashioned.
Beyond that, you’ll find a second bar, a grab-and-go food station near the entrance, 30-minute complimentary facials from Face Haus, and dedicated family and nursing rooms. There’s just one shower suite, tucked near the spa area, so don’t plan on that being your first stop if the lounge is busy.
Getting in requires some commitment. The *chase sapphire reserve* is your best bet. It includes unlimited complimentary access for the cardholder, plus up to two guests at no charge. That’s a meaningful perk if you’re traveling with family or a partner, since most premium lounge cards cap free guest access at one or charge for extras. Without the card, everyday travelers can still get in for $100 for a day pass … space permitting.
One catch that trips people up, regardless of how you’re getting in? You can only enter up to three hours before your scheduled departure, unless you’re on a layover.
The lounge is open daily from 5 a.m. to 10 p.m.
– Nick Serati, Thrifty Traveler co-founder
😴 Emirates Unveils Game-Changing New Economy Headrest
Emirates was all about luxury long before every airline decided “premium” travel is where it’s at: think fully enclosed first class suites, bottomless caviar, onboard bars, and even a shower at 38,000 feet.
But the Dubai-based carrier just officially unveiled a seemingly small new seat feature that should genuinely make flying economy long-haul much better. Emirates calls it the “U-Dream Headrest.”
I call it “a headrest that flips down into a padded neck support, helping you sleep better and rendering your flimsy travel pillow obsolete.” That’s a working title.
But seriously, this looks really promising. Unless I’m at a window seat and can lean up against the side of the cabin, I can barely sleep a wink on planes. A place to lean my head that’s attached to the seat sounds like a dream.
Now more than ever, it’s a simple but surprising innovation. Most airlines’ interest in the economy cabin these days is either “how can we make these seats even smaller” or “let’s get rid of some economy seats, we need more business class!”
You won’t see these nifty headrests on every Emirates jet just yet, but that’s in the works.
For starters, it’s been flying on a handful of the airline’s new Airbus A350s for a few months, and that will continue to increase as the carrier gets more of them in the sky. Ditto for new deliveries of Boeing 777X’s coming … well, sometime.
Finally, Emirates says it will begin retrofitting its entire fleet of older Boeing 777 and those iconic, double-decker Airbus A380s starting sometime in 2027.
– Kyle Potter, executive editor
🎙️ On the Pod: Where to Find Summer Deals
✈️ Is airfare starting to drop? The guys dig into some positive airfare trends before digging into where you can still find great travel deals for this summer. Plus, we rant about Delta Basic Business and gush about Flighty’s update.
Tune in now on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!
🥳 Join us in Fargo Next Week for the Thrifty Traveler Podcast LIVE!
We’re officially taking this show on the road – and returning to our roots!
That’s right: The Thrifty Traveler Podcast is going live again in Fargo, North Dakota! Join us next Wednesday, July 29 for an hour of our usual blend of travel insights, tips, and unhinged takes.
Fargo is near and dear to our hearts – that’s why it’s one of the airport maps in our podcast studio. Our founder, co-founder, and COO are all native Fargoans. I myself worked (and met my wife!) there for a year and change out of college.
Our live recording of the pod is part of the run-up to TEDxFargo, an amazing annual event that our CEO, Jared, spoke at a few years back. Getting involved with this amazing community again was an absolute no-brainer.
See you in downtown Fargo in a few days, folks!
– Kyle Potter, executive editor & podcast co-host
✈️ Other Travel Tidbits
- ⏳ Chase’s huge, 100,000-point bonus after spending $5,000 in the first 3 months on the Sapphire Preferred® Card is ending soon!
- ✈️ Southwest’s latest award sale ends tonight! One-ways start at 7K points in the continental U.S., 8K to Mexico and the Caribbean, and 10k to Hawaii, for travel August 8–November 18. Book by 11:59 p.m. PT tonight. (Southwest)
- 💳 Chase’s Freedom Flex is ditching foreign transaction fees starting September 20. Cardholders will be able to use the Freedom Flex abroad without the usual 3% fee. (AwardWallet)
- 🇯🇵 Citi might be adding Japan Airlines as a ThankYou transfer partner. JAL Mileage Bank has briefly appeared on Citi’s ThankYou loyalty programs page, though it’s gone now. (Danny Deal Guru)
