There's a chance this is a bad take … but I'm going for it anyway.

This take is based on anecdotes and vibes and all the things they tell us journalists to avoid. And there's plenty of contrary evidence to this hypothesis. But I've been closely tracking airfare for years for Thrifty Traveler Premium, and I've got a hunch I just can't shake. So, here goes nothing …

While airfare might be high right now, I think we’re heading toward an airfare cliff that could lead to a fire sale of low airfare for this summer – especially if you wait until the last minute.

Phew! I’m glad I got that off my chest. Now, let me tell you why I think I’m right … before I show you the data that suggests I might be (hilariously and epically) wrong.

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Why I'm Right

Here are two reasons why I think we're going to see prices drop in the not-so-distant future – a bit anecdotal, but where there's smoke … there's often fire.

  1. More people are pulling back on travel. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, driving up airfare. After two months of this, some travelers are getting priced out. A study of 2,000 Americans conducted in late March found that 58% of U.S. travelers planned to cut travel spending in 2026.
  2. Planes are increasingly empty lately. I took four Delta flights in April, and none of them were full, with some being shockingly empty. I can count the number of non-full flights I’ve taken in the last four years on one hand. I'm not alone in noticing this, either. Take a look at this report of empty United flights from Brett Snyder on his Cranky Flier newsletter. And I’ve seen plenty of other social media anecdotes from travel professionals, seeing more of the same. This is hardly concrete evidence, but it's noticeable to many travelers.

Here's what I think is going to happen: Airlines will cancel flights where they know they can’t make money due to spiking jet fuel prices (they already are), but they can’t cancel them all. That's why they're charging more. I’m betting more and more travelers won't book those high fares, leaving a lot of empty seats to fill in the coming months.

The only way to fill those seats at the last minute (i.e., 3-8 weeks before travel) is to run big sales! That's why I think airfare is going to plummet in the next few months, including this summer, when airline capacity is at its highest.

 

Why I'm Wrong

The problem with my prediction … is the pesky data.

TSA screenings (the best live indicator of current travel demand) are up 2% in 2026 when compared to the same months in 2025, with agents routinely screening more than 2 million people every day.

Also, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its March data showing travel bookings are up 6.5% worldwide year-over-year (as measured by revenue passenger kilometers). U.S. international demand is up 3.7%, and U.S. domestic demand is up 1.4%, too. Load factors (i.e., the percentage of a plane that’s full) … are also up.

So, yeah … the most recent data suggests that the airline executives are correct and I am wrong: Travel demand is as high as ever, so they'll keep charging high prices.

 

Yeah, But …

I still think I’m onto something. Airfare has risen so quickly and so high that I think people have started pausing bookings in the last few weeks, which will certainly affect how full planes are this summer.

So, against all reason and data, I’ll double down. Mark my words: An airfare cliff is coming, and fares will go down for travel this summer.

If I'm wrong … email our executive editor, Kyle, with all your complaints.

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