A new analysis of flight booking data shows demand between the U.S. and Europe in July 2026 is down considerably compared to July 2025. Yet during that same period, airlines will be flying more seats across the Atlantic than ever before.
While travelers will surely pick up the pace of booking flights between now and the peak summer months, this mismatch between supply and demand is a perfect recipe for cheap flight prices.
According to a study from aviation analytics firm Cirium, bookings from Europe to the U.S. are down 14.2% year over year. In the other direction, bookings from the U.S. to Europe are down 7.2%. The study compared bookings made between Oct. 7 and Jan. 31 of both years for flights operating in July.
Cirium collected the data from online travel agencies and the Global Distribution System used by airlines and travel agents to make bookings. While this is not hard booking data directly from airlines, it still serves as an important and statistically significant indicator of airfare trends.
It is far too early to declare 2026 a lost summer for airlines. More travelers are likely to book transatlantic flights in the coming months — and some probably at the last minute. Still, as an early indicator, this data spells trouble for airlines that have largely added capacity between the continents for 2026.
Why This is So Shocking
Even without context, these numbers are staggering. A 14% drop in European travelers booking flights to the U.S. is massive. A 7% decline among U.S. travelers heading to Europe is also meaningful.
But considering what’s happening in North America this July — namely, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico hosting the world’s most popular sporting event — this analysis came as a huge surprise.
The FIFA World Cup is, by far, the most popular sporting event on the planet. Reports around ticket prices suggest enormous demand for this year’s tournament. Historically, the World Cup attracts travelers from all over the globe — especially from Europe, which will feature 16 of the tournament’s 48 teams.
Yet instead of buoying transatlantic airline sales, airlines are facing a 14% decrease in bookings so far — compared to 2025, which did not have a comparable international draw.
Of course, traveling to the U.S. is not as simple as it has been in years past. Intensifying political factors have played a role. A nationwide crackdown on immigrants has been a focal point of the Trump administration, leading to widespread protests and even violence. The situation has prompted some governments, including Germany and Ireland, to issue updated travel advisories for the U.S.
Even the perception of an unsafe destination could cause some travelers to reconsider U.S. trips — or at least wait a few months to see how things look closer to summer before booking.
Low Demand + More Capacity = Flight Deals
Here’s where this gets interesting — and fun — for U.S.-based travelers.
Bookings are down more than 14% from Europe to the U.S. and down 7% in the opposite direction. But during that same month — July 2026 — capacity, or the number of seats flying, is up more than 2%. That includes a 2.1% capacity increase from the U.S. to Europe and a 2.2% increase from Europe to the U.S., measured in available seat miles — the best way to calculate airline capacity.
That gap between seats sold and seats flown could lead to cheap airfare between the U.S. and Europe this summer, much of it bookable in the coming months. If you procrastinated booking a summer trip, you might be in luck.
Read Next: Where to Look to find the Best Summer Flight Deals
Airlines appear to have misjudged the demand environment for 2026 by adding seats to the transatlantic market – and so did I.
Just a few weeks ago, I loudly and proudly predicted airfare would rise for summer 2026. It was part of our flight deal predictions on the Thrifty Traveler Podcast. If this booking trend continues, that take will have aged like guacamole. It’s not my first botched prediction — and it won’t be my last.
Where are Bookings Down?
Some airports and travel markets saw booking declines far greater than 14% or 7%. A few markets (*cough* Frankfurt *cough*) are seeing particularly steep drops.
This data, also from Cirium, shows which major airports are experiencing the worst booking woes.
Bookings from Europe to the U.S. – July 2025 vs. 2026
- Frankfurt – 36% decrease
- Barcelona – 26% decrease
- Amsterdam – 23% decrease
- Paris – 21% decrease
- Athens/Munich – 19% decrease
- Madrid – 15% decrease
- Dublin – 15% decrease
- Milan – 8% decrease
- Rome – 5% decrease
- London – 1% increase
Bookings from the U.S. to Europe – July 2025 vs. 2026
- Frankfurt – 29% decrease
- Dublin/Munich/Milan – 13% decrease
- Amsterdam/Paris – 7% decrease
- Madrid – 5% decrease
- London – 3% decrease
- Rome – 2% decrease
- Barcelona – 5% increase
Frankfurt’s numbers are especially puzzling and are clearly dragging down the averages. But seeing booking declines of more than 20% from cities like Barcelona, Amsterdam, and Paris is also surprising.
In the opposite direction, U.S. travelers appear to be pulling back from popular destinations like Dublin, Munich, and Milan. That 13% drop in bookings could lead to some excellent deals in the coming months.
What Airlines are Ripe for Good Summer Flight Deals
Armed with this data, I looked at which airlines increased — and decreased — their service the most for July 2026. I did this for two reasons: to see which airlines anticipated the slowdown and cut capacity, and to identify which airlines may have miscalculated and could be forced to discount fares.
Airlines That Guessed Wrong (and Might Lead to the Best Flight Deals)
Here’s where things get really interesting. These airlines increased flying to and from the U.S. in 2026 — and that could translate into some of the best airfare deals:
- La Compagnie – 130% increase*
- ITA – 23% increase
- LOT Polish Airlines – 14% increase
- Aer Lingus – 12% increase
- KLM – 8.9% increase
*La Compagnie is a business-class-only airline with limited service to and from Newark (EWR) and Milan (MXP), Paris (ORY), and Nice (NCE). While it does run good sales — and may run more now — its small size makes it a clear outlier.
But ITA, LOT, Aer Lingus, and KLM all increased flying enough that they might need to discount their fares.
But let's look at KLM, for example. Its hub at Amsterdam (AMS) is seeing 23% fewer bookings from Europe to the U.S. and 7% fewer bookings in the opposite direction year over year – yet KLM increased flying nearly 9%.
That gap between increased capacity and falling demand is the classic supply-and-demand sweet spot — one that could lead to excellent peak-summer deals, whether you’re booking with cash or using Air France/KLM Flying Blue miles.
Airlines That Guessed Right (or Got Lucky)
Low-cost carriers cut capacity the most going into July 2026 compared to July 2025. While that’s usually bad news for airfare competition, demand conditions appear weak enough that it may not matter.
Here are the airlines with the largest decreases in available seat miles (ASMs) in July 2026 compared to 2025:
- PLAY & IberoJet – 100% decreases – no service in 2026
- Norse Atlantic – 43% decrease
- HiSky Europe – 25% decrease
- Azores Airlines – 15% decrease
- Icelandair – 9.6% decrease
- Condor – 8.9% decrease
Do I think these airlines had crystal balls? No. Most were likely forced to cut U.S. flying due to underperformance over the past few years. Still, those cuts look well-timed given the current demand environment.
Bottom Line
Flight booking demand between the U.S. and Europe for July 2026 is down significantly from 2025, according to a new Cirium study.
That’s surprising given that the U.S. is hosting the world’s most popular sporting event this July, though it may reflect foreign travelers waiting to see how the U.S. political situation unfolds.
While bookings should rebound in the coming months, this early indicator is good news for travelers hunting for a great flight deal to Europe this summer.
